Revised Queensland Population Projections 2014

The Queensland Government Statistician has released in early 2014, its 2013 series of population projections, replacing its 2011 series population projections.  Significant changes have been observed between the two series, with the 2011 series not able to reflect the results of the 2011 Census and a continuation of difficult economic conditions reducing population growth in the 2008 to 2013 period.  This article reviews the key differences between these two population projections, comparing only the 2011 medium series with the 2013 medium series.

Given the very significant reliance that state government agencies, local authorities and businesses have placed upon the previous 2011 population series for planning and decision-making, these users should be aware of the changes made by the 2013 population series.  As explained below, some regions have had their population projections increased whilst others have had their population projections decreased.

The data tables for the medium series population projections can be accessed for the 2011 and 2013, respectively.

 The 2013 series has added 2036 to its projection period, with the 2011 series projecting out to only 2031.

The 2036 population projection for Queensland is now 7.095million persons, being 7.6% higher than the 2011 series projection for 2031.

The 2011 population starting point for Queensland has been revised downwards by 134,713 persons, or by 2.9%.  This difference is significant, being greater than the size of Mackay Region at that time.  This downwards revision was caused by two factors:

• a continuation of lower interstate migration levels during 2010 and 2011 (for which data was not available at the time of preparation of the 2011 series); and
• an over-reporting of population estimates for Queensland in the period leading up to the 2011 Census (discovered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the time of the release of the 2011 Census, causing it to revise downwards previous population estimates for the period 1992 to 2010).

 Other key differences include:

• The 2013 series has adopted lower (-2.5%) annual growth rates for Queensland in the 2011 to 2016 period than did the 2011 series, reflecting a continuation of lower population growth rates being experienced to 2013 due to the difficult economic conditions.
• The 2013 series projections adopts higher growth rates in the 2016 to 2031 period than the 2011 series (+6.8%) resulting in the 2031 population being only 44,637 persons less than the 2011 series for that year (-0.7%).

The downwards revision of the 2011 starting population number for Queensland (-2.9%) was not distributed evenly throughout the state.  Brisbane City recorded a significant uplift in its 2011 population, increasing by more than 4,000 persons (+3.9%), with some smaller communities (particularly on the Cape) also recording small increases in its 2011 population base.

Queensland local government areas receiving the largest decreases to their 2011 starting populations include:

• Gold Coast City (almost 29,000 persons)
• Sunshine Coast Region (including Noosa Shire – 20,000 persons)
• Townsville City (11,000 persons)
• Cairns Region (10,700 persons)
• Toowoomba Region (9,000 persons)
• Fraser Coast Region (7,000 persons) and
• Bundaberg Region almost 6,500 persons).

The 2013 population projection series have also changed the regional distribution of future growth.  South East Queensland’s share of population growth is projected to increase from 66.9% (2011 series) to 72.9% (2013 series).

During the 2011 to 2031 period, the 2013 series had distributed greater population growth to some regions, whilst other regions have received significantly lower population growth than projected by the 2011 series.  The only three Statistical Divisions achieving higher growth rates are:

• Brisbane (an additional 8,000 persons per annum [+20%]),
• Gold Coast (+2,550 persons per annum [+20%]) and
• Far North (+ 238 persons per annum [+5%]).

The Statistical Divisions recording the greatest decreases in population growth (expressed as persons per annum) are:

• Wide Bay Burnett (-2,100 [-34%])
• Darling Downs (-1,800 [-36%])
• West Moreton (-1,250 [-31%]) and
• Mackay (-550 [-11%]).

Local authorities recording the greatest annual increases in population growth are:

• Brisbane City (+5,100 [+55%])
• Gold Coast City (+2,550 [+20%])
• Moreton Bay Region (+2,450 [+34%]) and
• Logan City (+1,100 [+14%]).

Local authorities recording the greatest annual decreases in population growth are: