The Queensland Government Statistician has released in April 2016, its 2015 series of population projections, replacing its 2013 series population projections.  Significant changes have been observed between the two series, reflecting a continuation of difficult economic conditions that resulted in subdued population growth in the 2008 to 2014 period.  This article reviews the key differences between these two population projections, comparing only the 2015 medium series with the 2013 medium series.

Given the very significant reliance that state government agencies, local authorities and businesses have placed upon population projections prepared by the Queensland Government Statisticians for planning and decision-making, these users should be aware of the changes made by the 2015 population series.  As explained below, some regions have had their population projections increased whilst the majority have had their population projections decreased.

The data table for the medium series population projections can be accessed for the 2015 series.

The 2036 population projection for Queensland is now 6.763 million persons, being 4.7% lower than the 2013 series projection for 2036.

Other key differences include:

• The 2015 series has adopted significantly lower (-22.4%) annual growth rates for Queensland in the 2011 to 2021 period than did the 2013 series, reflecting a continuation of lower population growth rates being experienced to 2014 due to the difficult economic conditions.
• The 2015 series projections  adopts only slightly lower growth rates in the 2021 to 2036 period than the 2013 series (-2.8%).

The 2015 population projection series have also changed the regional distribution of future growth.  South East Queensland’s share of population growth in the 2011 to 2036 period is projected to increase from 72.5% (2013 series) to 76.0% (2015 series).  This means that regional Queensland is expected to absorb a greater reduction in population growth (in percentage terms).

During the 2011 to 2036 period, the 2015 series had distributed greater population growth to some regions, whilst other regions have received significantly lower population growth than projected by the 2013 series.

The Statistical Divisions recording the greatest decreases in population growth between the two series (expressed as persons per annum) are:

• Brisbane (- 4,128)
• Gold Coast (- 1,562)
• Mackay (- 1,376) and
• Far North (- 1,365)

The Statistical Divisions recording the greatest decreases in population growth between the two series (expressed in percentage terms) are:

• South West (- 43%)
• Darling Downs (- 32%)
• Mackay (- 31%)
• West Moreton (- 28%)
• North West (- 24%)
• Fitzroy (- 22%) and
• Northern (- 20%)

Of the 78 local authorities in Queensland, only 15 have been allocated additional population growth over and above the 2013 projections.  The most significant of these are:

• Moreton Bay (additional 155 persons per annum [+1.7%] )
• Somerset (additional 137 persons per annum [+33.4%] )
• Lockyer Valley (additional 119 persons per annum [+16.3%] ) and
• Banana (additional 59 persons per annum)

Local Authorities having been allocated the greatest annual decreases in population growth are (and representing reductions from the 2013 population growth of between 8.3% and 41.7%, which are considered significant):

• Ipswich                       (- 1,917 [- 13.3%] )
• Gold Coast                  (- 1,562 [- 10.0%] )
• Logan                          (- 1,249 [- 13.3%] )
• Mackay                       (- 1,064 [- 32.5%] )
• Townsville                   (- 1,031 [- 19.2%] )
• Scenic Rim                 (-  744 [- 41.7%] )
• Sunshine Coast          (- 675  [- 8.3%] )
• Cairns                         (- 662  [-17.8%] )
• Gladstone                   (- 599  [- 24.2%] )
• Redland                      (- 544  [- 24.9%] )
• Rockhampton            (- 489  [- 32.6%] )
• Fraser Coast               (- 465  [- 23.8%] )
• Toowoomba                (- 450  [- 18.5%])